GW2 deadline: Friday 28 August, 18:30 UK.
One gameweek played, and the game has already started grading the guesses. Three things the data says before you press save.
The kind run
The fixture map changed this week - not because the model moved, but because the window did: GW1 dropped out, GW7 rolled in. New kindest run: Crystal Palace (2.0 average over the next six), ahead of Newcastle (2.17), with Arsenal slipping to a 2.33 trio alongside Coventry and Fulham. The rough end belongs to Ipswich and Forest (both 3.33) with Sunderland next at 3.0.
One more honest reminder: the model still runs on pre-season priors until three rounds are played. Two gameweeks from now it switches to real xG - and that's when the attacking and clean-sheet views finally start disagreeing.
Where the money is
The title race at the top of the template is down to 0.9 points: Haaland 68.1%, João Pedro 67.2%. Three weeks ago the gap was 27; last week it was 8. Then GW1 gave the crowd its reasons: João Pedro scored, Haaland blanked. If the trend holds through today's deadline rush, the most-owned player in the game costs £7.6m, not £15.5m - and yes, that's £7.6m now: the season's first price rises landed this week, João Pedro and Calafiori both ticking up £0.1m.
Calafiori, meanwhile, is running away with the defensive vote: 41.5% ownership, up 10.5 points in a week - an assist and a clean sheet in GW1 will do that - twelve clear of his own teammate Gabriel (29.3%).
The mover
Tzolis: 18.5% → 25.9% in a week. Two Community Shield assists, another one in GW1, a £6.5m price tag - and he's suddenly level with Rogers as the fourth-most-owned midfielder in the game.
And the Arsenal machine keeps feeding: Konsa joined on 21 August - after the season had started - and already sits in 11.1% of squads. Meanwhile the £75m man completes his slide - and this week the market has a proper reason: Bruno is injured and at best a doubt for Monday. Three weeks: 11.6% → 8.5% → off the board entirely, below the 7% line of our new-signings top ten. First a cold shoulder, now a red flag - on this one, the crowd read it right.
Prices are moving, the window is rolling, and from tomorrow the guessing gets graded weekly. Deadline's at 18:30 UK.